David
Abstract:Time series data inform critical decisions across many real-world domains. While large language model (LLM) agents can analyze data through natural language and tools, it remains unclear whether they can conduct reliable time series analysis across multi-turn conversations. Existing benchmarks focus on single-step tasks such as forecasting and anomaly detection, overlooking practical workflows where user goals evolve, agents must build on prior analyses, and conclusions emerge from accumulated evidence. In this work, we introduce TimeSage-MT, a multi-turn benchmark for agentic time series reasoning with 240 tasks and 2,680 dialogue turns across 8 real-world domains, spanning basic exploration to decision-oriented analysis. TimeSage-MT is built through a reproducible pipeline that converts real-world time series data into multi-turn conversations with verifiable answers. It provides a unified evaluation protocol and public leaderboard for comparing time series agentic systems. To demonstrate the benchmark's utility, we evaluate frontier LLMs alongside TimeSage, a novel structured agent equipped with a comprehensive time series skill library. The results show sharp performance drops on decision-oriented tasks, driven by failures in memory, uncertainty handling, and domain-based decision making. TimeSage-MT exposes critical gaps in current agentic reasoning and provides a rigorous foundation for future development.
Abstract:Electrocardiography (ECG) is a cornerstone of cardiac assessment, making the learning of informative ECG representations fundamental to tasks ranging from disease diagnosis to clinical report generation. However, existing methods operate almost exclusively in the observable ECG signal space. In practice, the standard twelve-lead ECG represents multiple projections of the same underlying cardiac electrical activity from different spatial orientations. Therefore, representation learning in the ECG space inevitably introduces substantial redundancy, which may lead to spurious correlations and increased risk of overfitting. To address this and motivated by the Frank vectorcardiogram (VCG) model, we propose learning a unified latent representation of cardiac electrical activity directly in the VCG space. We introduce LVCG, the first general self-supervised representation learning framework designed to operate in this physically grounded latent space. By learning view-invariant latent VCG representations rather than lead-specific artifacts, VCG minimizes redundancy and improves generalization. LVCG generally outperforms ECG-space baselines across tasks, demonstrating enhanced robustness and generalization, especially in domain shift settings.
Abstract:Retrieval-augmented LLM agents increasingly rely on curated skill banks: collections of reusable textual principles that guide decision making on complex tasks. Existing approaches typically expand these banks in an append-only fashion, continuously adding new skills without removing redundant, outdated, or harmful ones, resulting in inefficient and poorly curated repositories. In this paper, we formulate the skill bank curation as a constrained multi-objective problem: a desirable bank must be useful for the agent, diverse in its content, and provide good coverage of the query distribution. To this end, we introduce SkillBrew, a multi-objective curation framework that formalizes skill bank curation as Pareto-aware optimization under a utility constraint, and solves it via a bi-level propose-then-verify loop. We evaluate our approach on two public benchmarks. Our findings suggest that treating skill banks as objects of principled curation, rather than ever-growing append-only logs, is an important step toward building self-improving LLM agents.
Abstract:Modern LLM agents combine long-term memory for personalization with tool-calling interfaces for taking actions in the world -- a combination underpinning contemporary production systems. We study a previously unexamined failure of this combination: when personality-driven biases stored in memory (cost-consciousness, impatience, risk tolerance, etc.) silently affect tool calls in contexts where they are not applicable. We call this memory-induced tool-drift and operationalize it through MEMDRIFT, a benchmark of 105 scenarios spanning five bias dimensions and seven professional domains, generated through an automated adversarial pipeline. Across seven frontier models -- including those with extended reasoning -- biased memories raise deflection scores (a judge-scored measure of parameter deviation from unbiased baselines) by up to $+3.6$ points on a 1--5 scale. Tool-drift persists when memory management is handled by three production memory architectures. The phenomenon affects real-world tools: scanning 6{,}062 tools across 288 verified MCP servers, we flag 608 with susceptible parameters and confirm tool-drift on a validated subset. Mechanistically, biased memories act as implicit steering vectors, pushing activations along the same latent directions as explicit behavioral instructions. They also redistribute attention from task-relevant context toward memory entries with surface-level keyword overlap to the target parameter. Standard defenses -- prompt-based relevance instructions and memory filters -- reduce drift but do not eliminate it. As agents take increasingly consequential actions on a user's behalf, memory-induced tool-drift represents a systematic vulnerability that current safeguards do not address, motivating dedicated defenses at the intersection of memory management and tool-call generation.
Abstract:Time series research is moving beyond fixed forecasting benchmarks toward realistic tasks that combine prediction, contextual reasoning, tool use, and structured decision support. Most benchmarks are built around clean data and short evaluation loops; agents alone may miss temporal constraints, evidence checks, or review before finalizing outputs. We first formalize next-generation time series tasks as three-component tuples consisting of a task file, a workspace, and a validation interface. We then present AION, a time series harness built from six component groups: agents, skills, rules, memory, evaluation, and protocols. In this harness, we use three design principles: temporal grounding, temporal knowledge-grounded reasoning, and reliability mechanisms such as post-experiment analysis and layered review. A Kaggle Store Sales case study shows that the harness produces more detailed process traces, more artifacts, and more review steps than the same base agent operating in OpenCode direct build mode. Taken together, these results argue for a paradigm shift from fixed tasks to realistic ones under real-world constraints.
Abstract:Time series forecasting serves as an essential tool for many real-world applications, supporting tasks such as resource optimization and decision-making. Despite significant architectural advancements, most modern models still treat forecasting task as a fixed mapping from history to target horizons. This induces temporal decoupling across future time points and limits the model's ability to adapt to the evolving context as forecasting progresses. In this work, we present LeapTS, a novel framework that reformulates time series forecasting as a dynamic scheduling process over the prediction horizon. Specifically, LeapTS organizes the forecasting process into multi-level decisions using: (1) the hierarchical controller to dynamically select the optimal prediction scale and advancement length at each step, and (2) continuous-time state evolution driven by neural controlled differential equations. Within this process, the controlled update mechanism explicitly couples the irregular temporal dynamics with discrete scheduling feedback. Extensive evaluations on both real-world and synthetic datasets demonstrate that LeapTS improves overall forecasting performance by at least 7.4% while achieving a 2.6$\times$ to 5.3$\times$ inference speedup over representative Transformer-based models. Furthermore, by explicitly tracing the scheduling trajectories, we reveal how the model autonomously adapts its forecasting behavior to capture non-stationary dynamics.
Abstract:Evaluating AI-generated reviews by verdict agreement is widely recognized as insufficient, yet current alternatives rarely audit which concerns a system identifies, how it prioritizes them, or whether those priorities align with the review rationale that shaped the final assessment. We propose concern alignment, a diagnostic framework that evaluates AI reviews at the concern level rather than only at the verdict level. The framework's core data structure is the match graph, a bipartite alignment between official and AI-generated concerns annotated with match type, severity, and post-rebuttal treatment. From this artifact we derive an evaluation ladder that moves from binary accuracy to concern detection, verdict-stratified behavior, decision-aware calibration, and rebuttal-aware decomposition. In a pilot study of four public AI review systems evaluated in six configurations, concern-level analysis suggests that detection alone does not determine review quality; calibration is often the binding constraint. Systems detect non-trivial fractions of official concerns yet most mark 25--55% of concerns on accepted papers as decisive, where, under our operationalization, no official concern on accepted papers was treated as a decisive blocker. Identical overall verdict accuracy can conceal reject-heavy behavior versus low-recall profiles, and low full-review false decisive rates can partly reflect concern dilution rather than calibrated prioritization. Most systems do not emit a native accept/reject, and inferring it from review tone is method-sensitive, reinforcing the need for concern-level diagnostics that remain stable across inference choices. The contribution is a reusable evaluation framework for auditing which concerns AI reviewers identify, how they weight them, and whether those priorities align with the review rationale that informed the paper's final assessment.
Abstract:Large language models are increasingly used in settings where uncertainty must drive decisions such as abstention, retrieval, and verification. Most existing methods treat uncertainty as a latent quantity to estimate after generation rather than a signal the model is trained to express. We instead study uncertainty as an interface for control. We compare two complementary interfaces: a global interface, where the model verbalizes a calibrated confidence score for its final answer, and a local interface, where the model emits an explicit <uncertain> marker during reasoning when it enters a high-risk state. These interfaces provide different but complementary benefits. Verbalized confidence substantially improves calibration, reduces overconfident errors, and yields the strongest overall Adaptive RAG controller while using retrieval more selectively. Reasoning-time uncertainty signaling makes previously silent failures visible during generation, improves wrong-answer coverage, and provides an effective high-recall retrieval trigger. Our findings further show that the two interfaces work differently internally: verbal confidence mainly refines how existing uncertainty is decoded, whereas reasoning-time signaling induces a broader late-layer reorganization. Together, these results suggest that effective uncertainty in LLMs should be trained as task-matched communication: global confidence for deciding whether to trust a final answer, and local signals for deciding when intervention is needed.
Abstract:Fine-tuning APIs offered by major AI providers create new attack surfaces where adversaries can bypass safety measures through targeted fine-tuning. We introduce Trojan-Speak, an adversarial fine-tuning method that bypasses Anthropic's Constitutional Classifiers. Our approach uses curriculum learning combined with GRPO-based hybrid reinforcement learning to teach models a communication protocol that evades LLM-based content classification. Crucially, while prior adversarial fine-tuning approaches report more than 25% capability degradation on reasoning benchmarks, Trojan-Speak incurs less than 5% degradation while achieving 99+% classifier evasion for models with 14B+ parameters. We demonstrate that fine-tuned models can provide detailed responses to expert-level CBRN (Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear) queries from Anthropic's Constitutional Classifiers bug-bounty program. Our findings reveal that LLM-based content classifiers alone are insufficient for preventing dangerous information disclosure when adversaries have fine-tuning access, and we show that activation-level probes can substantially improve robustness to such attacks.
Abstract:Mounting posture is an important visual indicator of estrus in dairy cattle. However, achieving reliable mounting pose estimation in real-world environments remains challenging due to cluttered backgrounds and frequent inter-animal occlusion. We present FSMC-Pose, a top-down framework that integrates a lightweight frequency-spatial fusion backbone, CattleMountNet, and a multiscale self-calibration head, SC2Head. Specifically, we design two algorithmic components for CattleMountNet: the Spatial Frequency Enhancement Block (SFEBlock) and the Receptive Aggregation Block (RABlock). SFEBlock separates cattle from cluttered backgrounds, while RABlock captures multiscale contextual information. The Spatial-Channel Self-Calibration Head (SC2Head) attends to spatial and channel dependencies and introduces a self-calibration branch to mitigate structural misalignment under inter-animal overlap. We construct a mounting dataset, MOUNT-Cattle, covering 1176 mounting instances, which follows the COCO format and supports drop-in training across pose estimation models. Using a comprehensive dataset that combines MOUNT-Cattle with the public NWAFU-Cattle dataset, FSMC-Pose achieves higher accuracy than strong baselines, with markedly lower computational and parameter costs, while maintaining real-time inference on commodity GPUs. Extensive experiments and qualitative analyses show that FSMC-Pose effectively captures and estimates cattle mounting pose in complex and cluttered environments. Dataset and code are available at https://github.com/elianafang/FSMC-Pose.